Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Wobbly Start to the Week for Markets Ahead of Key Data

13th of November, 2018

It was a wobbly start to the week with commodities, equities and currencies all posting large moves while interest rates were quiet as bond markets were closed in the US for Remembrance Day. The big week of local data kicks off today.

OPEC’s talk of production cuts next year got the oil market excited along with equity markets during the Asian session but a Trump tweet of displeasure saw an about face with oil prices hitting new lows for this run.

The USD is back on the march again after a brief reprieve during election week and has knocked all and sundry lower overnight, including the AUD which is back under 0.72 cents this morning. There were big falls on equity markets with tech companies leading the way which, along with the fall in the price of oil, will have impacting for the local market today.

More importantly the big week of local data kicks off today with the NAB monthly business survey. With growing question marks over the outlook, the outcome of the survey, especially the employment index, will be closely watched when it is released at 11:30.

Also out today is Curve’s Monthly Insights. We take a look in detail at the RBA’s Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy and why you should look beyond the upgraded forecasts at the details around the risks to the outlook. That will be out at 2:30 this afternoon.

David Flanagan

Director - Interest Rate Markets