Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Week Ahead

17th of May, 2021

There are multiple releases and updates this week on the economy.

Headlining the week are the minutes for the RBA board meeting in May. These are released tomorrow.

There was a slight shift in rhetoric from the May meeting, which suggested the RBA were more open to the idea of raising rates prior to 2024. They also announced that July would be when they decide whether to extend Yield Curve Control and QE.

The minutes will be scrutinised for any elaborating on these updates.

On Wednesday, consumer confidence for May is released and wage data for Q1 is released. Wage data will be most relevant for the RBA, as slow wage growth is the main reason the RBA do not expect to increase the cash rate prior to 2024.

Employment for April, the first month when JobKeeper has ended, is released on Thursday. Low unemployment will be the impetus for wage growth.

Finally, on Friday preliminary retail sales for April are released.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets