Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Packed Week Ahead

31st of May, 2021

A raft of key updates for monetary policy and the economy occur this week.

In chronological order, private credit data is released today. This is expected to rise 0.4%, which is the same as last month and would mark a continued pick up in credit growth after being sluggish over covid.

Tomorrow, the RBA will make a decision on monetary policy. No change is expected, but it will act as the final meeting before July’s, when the RBA will decide whether to extend Yield Curve control and QE.

Analysts will be looking for any hint as to what the RBA will decide in July. Also tomorrow is building approvals and house price data for April and May respectively.

On Wednesday, Q1 GDP is released. This is expected to mark a return to levels above pre covid, which would be a significant milestone.

Trade balance and retail sales for April are released on Thursday. Finally, lending growth for April is released on Friday.

In the backdrop to these releases will be covid case number in Victoria. All the releases for the week reflect the economy while Victoria was not in lockdown.

The recent lockdown will at least be a bump in the road for economic activity. If it were to be extended then it will more likely impact the RBA’s decision in July and the overall economy.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets