Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Lockdowns Hit Jobs

26th of August, 2020

As lockdowns were imposed in Victoria, payrolls data suggests jobs have taken a hit.

Payrolls data for the month up to August 8 suggests 1% of jobs were lost. This is following employment gains across the month for June and July.

The bulk of the jobs were lost in Victoria and in the last 2 weeks up to August 8. Victorian payrolls were down 2.8%, with 1.6% points of that fall coming in the final two weeks of the data where the stage 4 lockdown was imposed on August 2. Across the country, 0.8% point of the total 1% fall came in the final two weeks.

It leaves Victoria’s employment numbers much worse than the rest of the country. Since mid-March Victoria’s payrolls are down 8% whereas the rest of the country is down 4.9%.

The data period for the latest payrolls only captures 6 days of stage 4 lockdowns, so there is a risk that even more jobs have been lost in Victoria since the data was taken.

In contrast to the disappointing payrolls data, consumer confidence for the week is up 4.6%. This reflects the declining case numbers in Victoria and the virus largely being contained elsewhere in Australia.

Should case numbers continue to decline and be contained, it would be expected that confidence would continue to rise and employment pick up.

Josh Stewart

Client Relationship Manager