Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Local Markets Quiet Ahead of Further Key Data Updates

7th of November, 2019

In what has been a big week of key data updates, the last 24 hours has seen the market take a breath ahead of a big 24 hours to come.

Domestic markets have been left at the whim of geopolitical developments over the last 24 hours whilst we await trade surplus data and the very import Statement on Monetary Policy tomorrow.

It now appear the US-China Phase 1 trade deal may not be signed until mid December despite comments by both sides that it would be done by the end of the month. With APAC in Chile cancelled, a backup meeting place has still not been determined so a quick resolution to this first phase is unlikely to eventuate.

In the UK, the starters gun for the election has been fired with offical campaigning for the december 12 poll now underway. With an election date now confirmed the market has priced that tonight Bank of England meeting will almost certainly be uneventful. The market and BoE will likely wait until the rather open election result is decided before making and large or important decisions.

Locally, later today the ABS will release trade surplus data for September. The markets expects a fair reduction from recent all time highs with export values expected to give up some of recent gains. However, with a $5B surplus expected we are still likely to a result that is one of the best the country has ever had.

Matthew Dunshea

Client Relationship Manager