Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Geopolitical Tensions Rise In Lead Up To This Week’s Domestic Data

11th of March, 2019

Over the weekend we saw the global tide continue to turn as rising geopolitical tensions add to mixed offshore data. Moving domestically, upcoming data releases will provide insight into the current sentiment around Australia.

What likely caught most headlines was US non-farm payrolls heavily undershooting expectations of a 180k jump with only a 20k increase. Although this figure is quite weak, it’s coming off the back of adding almost 550k jobs in the 2 prior months. This data suggests that the US economy looks in good stead with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and average hourly earnings lifting to the highest annual rate since the GFC.

Shifting to US politics, China’s showing some resistance in trade talks as Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen stated that any prospective deal must be “two way, fair and equal.” With push-back from Chinese authorities, it’s likely that any deal reached won’t address the core issues at play.

On the European political front, this week will see a series of parliamentary votes as UK Prime Minister Theresa May tries to get her Withdrawal Agreement approved. While it’s still likely that there will be a delay to her Brexit plans, the chance of a no-deal Brexit can’t be ruled out.

Moving to the week ahead, there are some key data releases.

On Tuesday, we have NAB Business Survey, home loan and investment lending figures, building approvals and US CPI. Following this, Wednesday will give us the Westpac Consumer Confidence survey and on Thursday, we’ll see Chinese, retail sales, industrial production and investment data, all of which are relevant to Australia’s outlook

Neyavan Suthaharan

Client Services Officer