Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Employment Globally at a Critical Stage

26th June 2020

The improvements in global employment numbers could be at risk as Covid-19 case numbers shows signs of rising.

The economic outlook hinges on the recovery in the jobs sector. For growth to resume after the Covid-19 shock, able workers need to return to the workforce where they can earn a wage, spend and consume. The domestic jobs market has begun showing signs of this necessary recovery with the quantity of people on Jobkeeper and Jobseeker beginning to reduce.

Data for job vacancies shows the number of open positions is back to where it was in 2012, with the number of people looking per vacancy back above the 2002 level. If major businesses continue to lay off workers these numbers are unlikely to improve. Just yesterday Qantas announced 6000 job cuts and earlier this week several of the major accounting firms announced reductions of a few hundred each. These reductions pose a significant challenge to the outlook even before we consider the rise in cases of Covid-19 in Victoria.

In the US, Jobless claims data out overnight showed a continued decline in new claims. That is a positive for not only the US but the global economy and outlook. The challenge for the United States is very much centred around the resurgence in virus cases. They are certainly not achieving the levels of containment we have attained, even with the recent but localised spike.

Data wise there is nothing on the local calendar to see us out for the last Friday of the financial year.

Matthew Dunshea

Client Relationship Manager