Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Data Releases Today

7th of January, 2021

Following strong numbers for the October period, two data updates for the November period will be released today.

Trade balance data for November will be released today following an upside shock in October. Exports were up over 5.4% in October and imports down slightly despite a neutral read expected. It has left the trade balance in a surplus of $7.5 billion.

The November period is expected to undo part of the October gains. An overall surplus of $6.4 billion with a fall in exports of 3% and rise in imports of 2% is predicted.

Building approvals are also released today, which has been a very strong performer throughout the year mainly off the back of the government’s homebuilder scheme. Incentives for this are starting to be tailored back as of 2021.

Given the data released for today is for the November period, a 2% gain is still expected.

Overseas, the US presidential transition has been slow and took an uneasy turn overnight. Pro Trump supporters forced politicians to evacuate parliament so president-elect Joe Biden could not be confirmed as the new president.

Assuming the protests subside, then Democrats should have control of both the Senate and House. Voting in Georgia should see Democrats win control of the Senate.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets