Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Data Deluge and RBA This Week

30th November, 2020

RBA and GDP headline huge week of updates.

With this week straddling the end of month, it means we are set to get a raft of updates. It won’t just be data with the RBA also likely to feature heavily in the headline. On the RBA we have the December board meeting tomorrow, the quarterly statement from the Council of Financial Regulators on Wednesday along with the appearance by Governor Lowe before Parliament.

There will be plenty of data to digest this week in and around the RBA updates. Monthly inflation data for November and credit aggregates for October will be out today along with quarterly operating profits and inventories which will feed into Wednesday’s GDP data. Currently, the market is expecting the economy to have grown by 2.4% over the quarter but much could change between now and the release date as other partials come through.

Tomorrow we will get the weekly consumer confidence index and high frequency payroll data along with monthly building approvals. There will also be more partial GDP data including net exports and the balance of payments.

While the GDP release and RBA will headline Wednesday, October lending and international trade data will be closely watched. The new lending pulse is expected to fade a little after a couple of strong months while the trade balance is expected to improve a little.

We then round out the week with the October retail sales number. Another reasonably strong month is expected, supported by the reopening of the Victorian economy.

David Flanagan

Director - Interest Rate Markets