– Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

12th of August, 2021

Consumer confidence

• Fell 4.4% in August but remains in optimistic territory at 104.1.
• The unemployment index rose 13.3% and Economic conditions for the next 12 months fell 8.3%.
• Those that are vaccinated or plan to be (76% of those surveyed) are 10 points more optimistic than those that are undecided or will not get vaccinated.
• The survey period included the Victorian and Queensland snap lockdowns.
• States under lockdown had falls in confidence, with Victoria leading the falls with a 10.8% decline.
• WA and SA had strong rises in confidence as the covid threat diminished over the short term. 

US Inflation

• July headline inflation was 0.5%.
• Core inflation was 0.3%, slightly under the expected 0.4%.
• Yields on the US fell slightly as a result.
• Like the RBA, the Fed believe inflation will be transient. But talk of tapering policy is still prominent.