Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Daily Insights – Q3 Wages

18 November, 2021

Q3 Wages

  • Wages were up 0.6% for the September quarter, amounting to a 2.2% rise on last year.
  • Q1 and Q2 in 2020 were very soft, so the annual figure is higher from lower base effects.
  • Anecdotes of higher big wage pick-ups did not show in the numbers and there was no evidence of runaway inflation.
  • The figures were more supportive of Governor Lowe’s dovish outlook on Tuesday.

UK Inflation

  • Is up 4.2% on last year, which was higher than the expected 3.9%.
  • Core inflation is 3.4%.
  • It seems a rate hike is imminent in December with these strong numbers and a strong recovery of the labour market.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets