Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Daily Insights – Business Survey Plummets

11th of August, 2021

Business Survey for July

  • Confidence fell off a cliff to -8 from 11.
  • Conditions fell to 11 from 25.
  • The employment index fell to 10 from 18.
  • Quarterly retail prices fell to 1.2% from 2%.
  • NSW drove the declines, but falls were broad based across the country and industries.

Australia’s Covid Rebound with Iceland as a Case Study

  • Iceland have recorded a 7-day average of covid cases over 100 for nearly 2 weeks, with a population of around 350 000.
  • Their two-dose vaccination rate is nearly 72% of the population.
  • Although deaths have remained very low, the hospital system is under pressure with the increase of cases.
  • Australia will likely experience a similar rise of case numbers, as the economy transitions to living with covid rather than aiming for zero cases.
  • Whereas the first half of 2021 the economy boomed with no covid, it is unclear whether covid being transmitted in the community (even with high vaccination rates) will impact mobility and activity.
  • If it does, the economy will not recover as quickly as it did in the first half of 2021.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets