Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Daily Insights – Business Confidence Balloons

13th of October, 2021

Confidence Rockets as Conditions Sour

  • Confidence was up to 13 from -6.
  • A rebound of 42 points in NSW as re opening was imminent led the surge. Similarly, Victoria was up 16 points.
  • Conditions were down to 5 from 14.
  • The employment index went to 1 from 9.
  • There was a little evidence of inflation pressure, with retail prices up to 2% from 1.2% as a quarterly rate. But final product prices and purchase costs were little changed.

Britain Churning Along

  • Vacancies in Britain reached a 20 year high, with more vacancies than unemployed people.
  • Unemployment is 4.5%, whereas pre covid it was 4%.
  • There is speculation the Bank of England will raise rates before the end of the year.

US Vacancies High

  • Similar to Britain, July and August recorded the highest jobs availability on record.
  • As businesses have struggled to fill positions, the amount of businesses looking to hire fell from 32% to 26%.
  • With the tightness, plans to increase wages went to 30% of businesses from 26%.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets