Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Daily Insights – Another Record Trade Balance

3rd of September, 2021

Trade Balance July

  • Another record surplus was set after last month’s record.
  • The surplus is $12.1 billion.
  • Exports were up 4.8% and imports up 3.3%.
  • Volumes and price rises for commodity exports led the gains.

Loan Approvals

  • Total loan approvals were up 0.2% for July.
  • Investors drove the gains, up 1.8% for the period. This accounts for 29% of overall loans.
  • On the other hand, owner occupied approvals were down 0.4%.
  • Refinancing reached an all time high, up 6% in July to be $17.2 billion against $32.1 billion of total new lending. We suspect switching into low fixed rate loans is a driver of this.

RBA Tapering

  • ANZ expect the RBA to delay its QE tapering on Tuesday.
  • Other economists say they will hold the line.

Negative T Notes Again

  • Negative yielding T notes have become the norm.
  • The highest accepted bid yesterday was 0% for the 25 March 2022 issue.
  • Otherwise all accepted bids for the March 2022 and 26 November 2021 issues were negative, with the lowest being -0.015%.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets