Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Daily Flows and Insights – Business Survey

15 December, 2021

Curve Flows

  • We’ve seen moderate flows into smaller ADIs as their appetite increases before the Christmas period, with several banks still offering around 0.80% for 3 month term deposits.
  • Investors have been rewarded for tenor; with Bank of Queensland 2-year (1.10%), Judo Bank 3-year (1.60%) and AMP 4-year (1.75%) rates.
  • We are still seeing strong flows into major bank FRNs across 2023-24  maturities, with Macquarie Bank and Suncorp popular in the 2025-26 space.

November Business Survey

  • Business confidence fell to 12 from 20.
  • Business conditions rose to 12 from 10.
  • Both remain above historic levels.
  • The employment index was a positive, up to 11 from 6.

Fed Ahead

  • An acceleration of QE tapering so it ends early next year is largely expected.
  • This will likely be accompanied by earlier expectations for rate hikes next year.
  • Currently 0.68% points of rate hikes are priced in by markets over 2022.

Josh Stewart

Associate - Money Markets