– Daily Flows & Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Wednesday, 29th June, 2022

Daily Flows

• We have really begun to see a flurry of activity from both investors and borrowers as we approach the very end of the financial year. However, investor funds remain scarce as the negative funding gap continues.
• More ADI’s came to market for NCD’s with +40 again available from BBB names.
• An unrated ADI offered 2.50% for 3-month term deposits, gaining some traction.
• Macquarie Group launched a new Capital Notes program, expected to price with a margin of 3.70-3.90% above 3mBBSW.

U.S. Confidence Falls

• The June Conference Board Confidence fell to 98.7, down from 106.4 in May.
• Board expectations fell from 77.5 to 66.4 and the board present situation fell from 149.6 to 147.1.
• 12-month inflation expectations rose to 8% from 7.5%
• This is new lows from 2013 and highlights the increased pressure businesses face to try and pass costs onto their consumers.
• Inflation expectations will be viewed upon by the Fed very poorly and likely to push them towards another 75 basis point hike in July.

Domestic Retail Sales

• Retail sales data for May is released today.
• The market is expecting a 0.40% increase, down from 0.90%. Vast disparity in opinions are included within this read, with highs of 1% increase and lows of -1%.
• The read will be quite telling, capturing the effect of the RBA’s first rate hike.