Daily Flows & Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Daily Flow & Insights – PPI Surprises, UK GDP Negative

Friday, 13th May, 2022

Daily Flows

  • Flows were again strong yesterday with many ADI’s looking.
  • Terms were centred around 3 months, with TD’s as high as 1.45% from unrated domestic names.
  • NCD activity was greater than usual as benchmark rates continued to lift, with 3mBBSW reaching 0.98% and 3-month margins sitting around +20 to +25.
  • While many ADI’s remain open to funds, some have begun to close their books for now after receiving heavy investment inflows.

U.S. PPI Provides Good News

  • U.S. headline PPI rose in line with expectations, increasing 0.50% MoM.
  • Core PPI came in positively below expectations, only rising 0.40% MoM, compared with 0.70%.
  • Annualised core PPI is still worrying at 8.80%, however markets were expecting 9.60%.
  • After the CPI figures surprised on the upside earlier this week, rate markets have responded positively overnight.
  • Yields saw increased buying pressure, with the 10Yr treasury now trading at 2.90%.
  • Equities remain under fire, falling again overnight. Crypto currencies are also seeing strong selling pressure.

UK GDP

  • UK GDP fell 0.10% in March. This is the first solid evidence that the war is taking its toll on European countries.
  • This print is quite possibly a sign of things to come, with fears that the April read could be far worse.
  • Inflation is running rampant through the UK and European economies, stirred on by large increases in energy prices and general disruption to supply chains.
  • Northern Ireland is also a large cause of concern for the UK Economy, with large debate surrounding protocol of border checks. Brexit talks have been reignited.

Nicholas Allan

Associate - Money Markets