Daily Flows & Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Daily Flow & Insights – Eyes on the RBA

Tuesday, 5th April, 2022

Daily Flows

  • It was a steady but quiet start to the week yesterday, with moderate flows across the board and minimal notable moves in rates.
  • There was decent bond activity, with the NAB Feb 2027 floating issuance of particular note in our flows as major bank lines continue to draw attention.

RBA Meet Today

  • No significant changes to monetary policy are likely to come from todays meeting.
  • What will hold the most significance is the rhetoric surrounding the RBA’s patience, inflation forecasts and any further revisions to the central scenario.
  • The RBA highlighted in the last meeting that uncertainty was plaguing the forecasts, with the Ukraine War being a significant component of that.
  • It will be quite interesting to see if the recent flood events on the East Coast of Australia will be mentioned, as supply chains may be further disrupted due to spoiled crops.
  • In 2011, the RBA increased their inflation forecast by 0.25% due to a flood event that saw crops destroyed.
  • Overall, the policy should be highly insightful to the central scenario moving forward.

Data Today

  • Consumer confidence is out this morning. The read will highlight whether the budget has had an impact on consumer sentiment.

Nicholas Allan

Associate - Money Markets