Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Case Numbers Rise

13th of July, 2020

In a week with several key data releases, the overarching theme will once again in Covid-19 case numbers.

After several weeks where domestically things were resuming normality, the nation is once again facing the prospect of further shutdowns. Covid-19 case numbers have risen again in Victoria with small outbreaks now occurring in South-Western Sydney. The multiple Victorian clusters have seen nearly 500 new cases across the weekend and now several at a pub in Southern Sydney.

Government in both states have moved quickly to isolate and contain the outbreaks but should they not succeed then rollback of lockdown measure will almost certainly follow. This comes at a crucial time for the economy as the federal government deliberates how to bring stimulus programs to a manageable level. We are now just 10 days from the schedules update by the government where they will hand down their plans for the impending end date to both the Jobseeker and Jobkeeper programs.

Data wise this week we have 3 major releases. We will get the Nab business survey Tuesday, followed by Westpac Consumer Confidence Wednesday. The headline event this week being Thursday’s Labour Force data. The current survey median for Labour Force is to see a 100K uplift in new jobs, however once again labour force data will conceal the true nature of the jobs market with so many still on government payments.

Curve will also release our Monthly Insight this week which will include a deeper insight into the current dynamics in funding markets amidst the covid-19 outbreak.

Matthew Dunshea

Client Relationship Manager