Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Big Few Days Get Under Way

9th of July, 2019

It was a quiet start to the week but things should start to get interesting today as key data and events really kick the week off.

The only real domestic data of note yesterday was the latest jobs ads report. After posting a huge fall in May, largely due to the election, job ads bounced back in June. Jobs ads jumped 4.6% in June but it wasn’t enough to offset the 8.4% fall the previous month, leaving the downtrend in place.

Today we’ll get the latest monthly business survey which will provide a crucial insight into the outlook. Last month we saw business confidence get a boost following the election while business conditions continue to deteriorate. The key though will be the employment index and whether or not hiring intentions have improved now the election is out of the way.

Offshore the focus will be squarely on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his packed schedule over the next few days. He will deliver a speech later tonight our time before heading to congress for his two day testimony. The market will be looking for insights ahead of the next Fed meeting later this month where the market is currently expecting the FOMC to ease monetary policy.

David Flanagan

Director - Interest Rate Markets