Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

Big Data Week Ahead

31st of August, 2020

After a slow week of data releases last week there will be plenty of updates on the state of the economy this week.

The first big update from the week will come tomorrow, with the RBA’s monetary policy decision. This will be followed by Q2 GDP on Wednesday and trade balance data for July on Thursday.

Although GDP and trade data will be retrospective, it will be useful for the government and the RBA especially to assess the extent of the economic damage from Covid-19. Since March both the RBA and government have gone to great lengths to support the economy.

The data updates will inform ongoing policy decisions for the RBA and government. If the damage is more severe than initially thought, then there could be calls for the government and RBA to do more to support the economy. If the economy beats expectations then the emphasis could more likely be on unwinding the current measures.

Apart from Victoria, where stage 4 lockdown measures are in place, the economy has performed better than initial fears. Although uncertainty is still rife.

Concerns about Victoria’s lockdown being extended have already surfaced, with case numbers still over 100 yesterday. NSW and Queensland continue to have new cases without the numbers blowing out.

The faster Victoria can contain new case numbers and the longer other states can manage their lower numbers the quicker the economy will recover.

Josh Stewart

Client Relationship Manager