Entries by David Flanagan

Curve Daily Commentary, May 6, 2015

RBA Delivers but Still Surprises The RBA delivered another cut to the cash rate yesterday, taking it to a record low of 2.00%. While there were no real surprises in their decision, the accompanying statement did draw some very interesting reactions. Interestingly the statement contained some more optimistic elements that we have become accustomed to, […]

RBA Cuts Cash Rate to 2.00%

The Reserve Bank of Australia chose to lower the cash rate to 2.00%, in line with the broad market consensus that it would do so.  The key points to take from the meeting were: Commodity prices have declined somewhat sharply which will impact Australia’s terms of trade Household demand and employment are showing early signs […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 5, 2015

RBA Decision Day Just when it was looking a safe bet that the RBA would move today, the data yesterday was rather up beat, leaving the market sitting on the fence over today’s decision. After showing signs that the peak was in over the past couple of months, building approvals posted a 2.8% rise in […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 4, 2015

RBA Just The Tip Of The Iceberg This Week The RBA’s rate decision at 2:30pm tomorrow will be top billing this week, especially after Peter Martin’s article all but saying it was a done deal last Thursday night. Market pricing now has the probability of a rate cut at 2:3 after being less that 50/50 […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 1, 2015

A Rate Cut is Coming… Just as the needle was pointing towards a win for the no cut camp in the debate over next Tuesday’s rate cut decision (see graph for lower probability over the last week), Peter Martin, the ‘informed’ journalist who called the February cut, has said the RBA will cut again next Tuesday. […]

Curve Daily Commentary, April 30, 2015

Another GDP Print Disappoints While all the focus was on the FOMC’s statement in the early hours this morning, another poor Q1 GDP figure, this time from the US, caught the market off guard. Following in the footsteps of a weak print in the UK, growth in the US grew a mere 0.05% or an […]

Curve Daily Commentary, April 29, 2015

AUD Soars to a Four Month High The standout performance overnight came from the AUD which surged almost 2% to a four month high above 0.80. The move will see the debate over ‘will they or won’t they’ move rates next Tuesday intensify even further. A little closer look at the move and it was […]

Curve Daily Commentary, April 28, 2015

Low Rates are a Growing Concern Another day has past and the doubt continues to build over whether the RBA will lower rates again next week. This time it was the ANZ who weighed in and said that while they still favour a cut next Tuesday, it was now very much a line ball decision. […]

Curve Daily Commentary, April 27, 2015

The Good, The Bad and the AUD With the RBA now just over a week away from meeting to discuss the calibration of monetary policy, the outcome remains as unpredictable as ever following some key events Friday night. The good news for the RBA, the government and the broader Australian economy is the continued recovery […]

Curve Daily Commentary, April 24, 2015

Will They or Won’t They Following our report yesterday on the latest inflation data, we highlighted that was an element of doubt over whether the RBA would move again on interest rates when they meet on Tuesday week by cutting the cash rate a further 25bp.   Since then we have seen both sides of […]