Entries by David Flanagan

Curve Daily Commentary, June 3, 2015

RBA Sits Pat, AUD Rockets Higher At first blush, the RBA may have missed an opportunity to push the AUD lower with its statement yesterday. Glen Stevens was far more balanced than many were expecting him to be. However, sitting back and taking a look at the bigger picture, his words yesterday seem very appropriate.  […]

Curve Daily Commentary, June 2, 2015

RBA To Choose Words Wisely The RBA is at an important junction that it needs to negotiate today and it will take a careful choice of words to do so.  After initially rising after their May Board meeting, the AUD has been in a steady downtrend over the last three weeks or so. This has […]

Curve Daily Commentary, June 1, 2015

A Data Deluge And The RBA Hot on the heels of last weeks headline grabbing data will be a data deluge this week, either side of the RBA’s June Board meeting.  The next two days will see more partial indicators of GDP released ahead of the final growth figure on Wednesday. The market’s expectations has […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 29 2015

CAPEX Capitulation Continues Currently the biggest drag, and potentially the biggest risk to the economy, CAPEX, is sounding a very loud warning bell for the economy. The latest release from the ABS showed that Capital Expenditure fell 4.4% over the first quarter which was twice what the market was expecting. The worrying thing is that […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 28th 2015

Construction Work Collapse Continues There seems to be no end in sight for the decline in construction work with it continuing to decline in the first quarter. Construction work completed fell by 2.4% in the first quarter, almost twice expectations, which saw the annual decline reach 8.8%. That marks the largest annual decline since the […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 27, 2015

USD Helping the RBA Any concerns that the RBA may have been harbouring over the rise in the AUD after their May Board meeting will be slowly abating. After rising back above 0.81 to a high of 0.8157 in the week and a half after the meeting, the AUD has fallen more than 4 cents […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 26, 2015

Budget Exuberance Fades on Near Term Economic Outlook Some of the initial positivity around the Governments 2015/16 Federal Budget has already begun to fade according to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer sentiment report. The confidence index eased back 1% following its biggest jump so far this year following the release of the budget almost […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 25, 2015

  US FED to Raise Rates This Year No Matter What the Economic Data Depicts The speech by Janet Yellen on Friday has given us the clearest signal the US Federal Funds Rate will rise from 0% sometime in 2015 irrespective of economic data. The lift off will occur at any FED meeting in the […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 21, 2016

  FED Tightening Consensus is September The minutes of the late April FOMC meeting were released overnight. It confirmed the June meeting is an unlikely commencement date of the well anticipated tightening of the FED cash rate off it’s 0% base.  They wish to commence the process but the data is just too weak to get the […]

Curve Daily Commentary, May 20, 2015

Our Yield Curve Assumes a More Normal Shape The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey released yesterday showed a 3.6% increase, the largest weekly this year. Residential building approvals are up 23%, the Cash Rate is the lowest in 5 decades and the Budget process this year seems to be workable to both sides of politics […]