Daily Commentary BY THE CURVE TEAM –

The Employment Number

20th of April, 2018

Recent strength in the employment numbers paused in March, but the number is still in line with Tony Abbott’s 1,000,000 job promise in 2013.

The March employment report showed an increase of just 4.9k against the 20k expectation. In September of 2013, Tony Abbott vowed to add one million jobs to our workforce within five years, and the number currently sits at 996,800. If the March reading came in at the forecasted number, we would’ve seen this target surpassed.

The employment data emerging from the last two months has been somewhat disappointing when considering the outstanding period of growth witnessed throughout 2017. Since March 2017, Australia has enjoyed three months where the number of jobs added has exceeded 50k (see graph).

The headline number is not always representative of the full story with the changes in full and part-time employment providing a more holistic view of the changing dynamic.

We witnessed this yesterday when diving further into the headline number. Part-time jobs added 24.8k, whilst full-time jobs actually fell 19.9k. Further to this, the February number was revised down to a 6.3k loss from the 17.5k increase first published. Nevertheless, indicators of a strong labour market are still there despite the last two months. We just need wait for wages to start picking up to fuel some inflation.

On that note, on Tuesday Q1 CPI will be released and it will be the data focal point of next week.

James Winder

Associate Director