Entries by Yield

RBA Shows Hand

RBA minutes revealed it’s not just growth and inflation driving monetary policy. The RBA has a specific mandate when it comes to setting monetary policy. This mandate is used repeatedly in the closing remarks in communiques regarding monetary policy decisions. Yesterday’s minutes were a case in point, with the final sentence reading (my emphasis): “Taking into […]

Australia’s AAA Credit Rating Is Safe For Now

Australia’s AAA credit rating is safe until at least next year’s budget release. The Government presented their latest Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook (MYEFO) yesterday, detailing a $10 billion increase to the deficit whilst still forecasting a return to surplus by 2020/21. The presentation was delivered in a positive manner but it remains to be seen […]

Employment Bounces Back

Headline jump in employment not enough to stop the unemployment rate rising. Yesterday’s employment data was better than expected, with headline employment up 39k in November against expectations of a 17.5k increase. However it is important to read more into today’s positive headline figure. With trend employment growth in the non-mining states slowing to 3.3k m/m, […]

Fed’s Surprise

It wasn’t the FOMC’s decision to hike rates that caught the market by surprise. Twelve months ago, the US Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate for the first time in a decade. In their projections pack, the dot plot chart, which looks at the expectations of all Federal Reserve members for the forecast horizon, […]

Pull the Trigger

It has been a subdued night for global markets ahead of tomorrow morning’s FOMC meeting. All eyes will turn to the US Federal Open Market Committee early tomorrow morning as they meet to discuss the potential tightening of US interest rates. The rate hike is almost completely priced in, with the expectation that the 25bp move higher […]