Entries by Curve

Curve Daily Commentary, April 9, 2015

No Power in Inflation US Federal Reserve policy makers were split over whether or not they would raise their interest rates by June. Several members of the FOMC judged the US economic outlook to warrant a normalisation of the yield curve in their June meeting. Others, however, saw the decreased prices in energy markets and […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Apr 2, 2015

Covering Liquidity In January this year Basel 3 was rolled out requiring banks to estimate their net cash outflows over a 30 day period under stressed conditions, called the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). It was basically a cover measure put in place to analyse the impact of another GFC, loss of market liquidity or run […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Apr 1, 2015

Confidence On the Up End of month and end of quarter finished on a risk adverse note. Equities finished lower as did government bond futures. The largest of the deposit taking banks finished awash with liquidity and rates were lower to show for this. Normal practices of “window dressing” banking books with more deposits going […]

Curve Daily Commentary, March 31, 2015

How Far We’ve Come Given that US Fed Chair Janet Yellen has stated that any upwards move in US interest rates will be data driven, it is no surprise that markets moved overnight as US data was better than expected. Personal spending rose where it had previously declined, home sales jumped after a steady decline […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Mar 30, 2015

A Taxing Problem When reading the news yesterday it was a shock to see Joe Hockey bringing up a previous Labor reform, reiterating the need for a Deposit Tax. Chris Bowen’s idea was to levy the 5 basis point tax to cover the Financial Claims Scheme that effectively government guarantees an entity’s funds up to […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Mar 27, 2015

Pricing In a Cut or Two Oil was up yesterday on the news that the Saudis have put together a 10 nation coalition to attack the Houthi militia in their neighbouring country, Yemen.  This event further solidifies the opinion that geopolitical risk will be the key risk of 2015. Together with the Ukraine and Russia […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Mar 26, 2015

First Quarter 2015 Closing Fast There has not been one dull moment in the opening quarter of the 2015 Global Financial Markets game. The Global Central Bank team versus the Rest of The World is proving to be an epic contest that will be fought all throughout the 4 quarters and for many seasons to […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Mar 25, 2015

Looking Back a Year Markets may not have been as exciting as the Kiwis victory over South Africa last night, but they did draw some attention. Reactions were mixed overnight as the US Consumer Price Index beat expectations, yet still saw interest rates fall. Australian bonds followed suit with our 3 year bond futures slipping […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Mar 24, 2015

Looking For Growth  Bad news for the Australian dollar as the US dollar fell further overnight. Interest rates were slightly lower on the back of some weak albeit minor data. Contrary to usual, Australian markets didn’t follow suit with our bond yields up, the 3y rising from 1.72% to 1.75%.  ANZ’s consumer confidence data printed […]

Curve Daily Commentary, Mar 23, 2015

The Worth of a Dollar It’s likely to be another volatile week as the US dollar bulls and bears fight for supremacy. Our Aussie dollar is sitting just below 78 US cents (graph below) but our fate is not our own. Since the FOMC meeting last week, markets have ducked and weaved based on sentiment […]