Entries by Curve

Feb 3, 2015 Daily Commentary

Inflation Divergence Continues, Oil Recovery Underway, RBA Day is Here The latest monthly inflation data from TD Securities and the Melbourne Institute showed that the divergence between headline inflation and the core reading continued into the first quarter of 2015. The January data once again showed a weak headline inflation number, weighed down by the […]

Feb 2, 2015 Daily Commentary

Rate Cuts Are Coming… That appears to be the only logical conclusion when we sit back and take a helicopter view of the latest market moves and a timely article from an ‘informed’ journalist at the SMH. US interest rate markets rallied hard on Friday night, sending the yield on the 10 year note to […]

Dec 2014 Monthly Insights

• The RBA’s rhetoric has remained unchanged despite downside risks to the economy rising. • Economic momentum in the economy is fading according to the latest GDP figures. • The hope that the economy will transition away from mining led growth is fading. • As a result the AUD has declined further, being assisted by […]

Nov 2014 Monthly Insights

• A period of stability in interest rates continues to be the RBA’s choice of rhetoric. • The data curveballs continued this month however the economic outlook is little changed. • Despite its fall being driven by offshore, the RBA says the AUD still has further to go. • While the FOMC’s Quantitative Easing (QE) […]

Oct 2014 Monthly Insights

• The housing market is emerging as the biggest downside risk to the local economy. • Investor activity unbalancing the housing market is set to draw a response from the RBA. • Despite the fall being driven offshore, the RBA says the AUD still has further to go. • Market forces of supply and demand […]

Sept 2014 Monthly Insights

• Australia posted growth of 3.1% in the year to 30/06/2014 marking the end of its 23rd year without a technical recession. • “Real” growth of 3.1% masks the fact that nominal growth is only half the decade average • So even though the RBA has signaled it will not be cutting rates again, overall […]

August 2014 Monthly Insights

• Emerging clouds over the economic outlook are growing more ominous. • Weak employment data and RBA downgrades have stoked expectations of a rate cut. • Market forces of supply and demand are assisting the RBA, with the preconditions for any adjustment in official rates still absent. Rates Recap • The RBA left the cash […]

July 2014 Monthly Insights

• The balance of risks to the Australian economy appear to be shifting • Poor trade balance and retail sales figures along with subdued consumer confidence and a stubbornly high Australian Dollar are casting a dark shadow over the economic outlook. • Solid jobs numbers show US economic strength, which could assist with global growth […]